"The principle of spending money to be paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale." --Thomas Jefferson

Tuesday, January 13

True or False? Share your prediction for 2009!

Bad Financial Predictions of 2008-(Be careful where you get your news.)

The average year-end 2008 prediction for the S&P 500 made by 9 Wall Street equity strategists on 1/02/08 was 1612, a forecast that called for a gain of +10% for the year. Instead, the S&P 500 finished 2008 at 903, down 37% on a total return basis (source: USA Today).

Russian oil executive Alexei Miller predicted in June 2008 that the price of oil would reach $250 a barrel in 2009. Oil closed last Friday at $40.83 a barrel (source: Financial Times).

In a 5/17/07 speech in Chicago, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said that Federal Reserve officials "believe the effect of the troubles in the subprime sector on the broader housing market will likely be limited, and we do not expect significant spillovers from the subprime market to the rest of the economy or to the financial system" (source: Federal Reserve).

At a symposium in Jackson Hole, WY on 8/31/07, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said that "it is not the responsibility of the Federal Reserve – nor would it be appropriate – to protect lenders and investors from the consequences of their financial decisions" (source: Federal Reserve).

A survey of 112 US money managers released on 11/05/07 predicted the outcome of the November 2008 presidential election. 61% of the managers believed Hillary Clinton would win the White House. Taking 2nd place in the poll was Rudy Giuliani with 15% of the vote (source: Barron’s).

In a 5/16/08 speech in Washington, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said "we are closer to the end of the market turmoil than the beginning. Looking forward, I expect the financial markets will be driven less by the recent turmoil and more by the recovery of the housing sector" (source: Treasury Department).

An article questioning Bernie Madoff’s investment strategy (titled "Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell") appeared in print on 5/07/01, 7 ½ years before his Ponzi scheme was discovered. When asked about the investment policy that he utilized, Madoff replied "it’s a proprietary strategy and I can’t go into it in great detail" (source: Barron’s).

So who are the real experts if our experts seem to know no better than the next guy? I would like to ask my readers to make some predictions on the comments of this post and in a year we will see how many were accurate. And don't worry about being wrong...taxpayers pay big salaries to guys that are wrong apparently a lot.

Comment away......!


Ryan said...

Oh, I have several predictions, but I'm not so bold as to venture into the realm of politics or the economy. But I will predict that:
1. Around October Carlee and Kory will welcome another 'cruise' baby into their home. Those cruise ships can be magical.
2. NBC will attempt a reality show called 'The World's Biggest Loser' where government, banking and automotive exectives compete for the prize. To the dismay of democrats everywhere, their scapegoat, George W., is not eligible.
3. Americans will become so fat that the FDA will name ice cream as the safest and most effective diet food.
4. Kirk will earnestly begin a grassroots campaign for the 2012 presidential bid, riding his motorcycle from rally to rally, beginning with Sturgis.

Ryan said...

oh, did I miss the link for the free whopper? Or will the burger come in the mail?

Carlee Hoopes said...

HAHAHA...Ryan, no cruise baby this time. Not unless it really is miraculous. The Whopper coupon is sent in the mail.

I'm too tired to think of predictions, but these are all good!

Kirk said...

Whoppers are redeemable at the end of motorcycle rides only....you have to read the really fine print. Sorry Carlee. You can also redeem by allowing your husband to ride.