True or False? Share your prediction for 2009!

Bad Financial Predictions of 2008-(Be careful where you get your news.)

The average year-end 2008 prediction for the S&P 500 made by 9 Wall Street equity strategists on 1/02/08 was 1612, a forecast that called for a gain of +10% for the year. Instead, the S&P 500 finished 2008 at 903, down 37% on a total return basis (source: USA Today).

Russian oil executive Alexei Miller predicted in June 2008 that the price of oil would reach $250 a barrel in 2009. Oil closed last Friday at $40.83 a barrel (source: Financial Times).

In a 5/17/07 speech in Chicago, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said that Federal Reserve officials "believe the effect of the troubles in the subprime sector on the broader housing market will likely be limited, and we do not expect significant spillovers from the subprime market to the rest of the economy or to the financial system" (source: Federal Reserve).

At a symposium in Jackson Hole, WY on 8/31/07, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said that "it is not the responsibility of the Federal Reserve – nor would it be appropriate – to protect lenders and investors from the consequences of their financial decisions" (source: Federal Reserve).

A survey of 112 US money managers released on 11/05/07 predicted the outcome of the November 2008 presidential election. 61% of the managers believed Hillary Clinton would win the White House. Taking 2nd place in the poll was Rudy Giuliani with 15% of the vote (source: Barron’s).

In a 5/16/08 speech in Washington, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said "we are closer to the end of the market turmoil than the beginning. Looking forward, I expect the financial markets will be driven less by the recent turmoil and more by the recovery of the housing sector" (source: Treasury Department).

An article questioning Bernie Madoff’s investment strategy (titled "Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell") appeared in print on 5/07/01, 7 ½ years before his Ponzi scheme was discovered. When asked about the investment policy that he utilized, Madoff replied "it’s a proprietary strategy and I can’t go into it in great detail" (source: Barron’s).

So who are the real experts if our experts seem to know no better than the next guy? I would like to ask my readers to make some predictions on the comments of this post and in a year we will see how many were accurate. And don't worry about being wrong...taxpayers pay big salaries to guys that are wrong apparently a lot.

Comment away......!

Watch out they spit!

Why doesn't this surprise me?!?!?!?!

All gutted, tagged and in transport!

30-06 rifle with Leupold Scope- $650 dollars

Out of State Elk License -$600 dollars

Gas to drive from New York -$700 dollars

Taking a Trophy Montana Llama- Priceless...............

Kirk's Bank Holding Company Charter Effective 01/08/09

I have to get something off my chest. It probably doesn't bother anyone else or even matter in the end it just drives me crazy every time I hear it and I am going to expose it for what it is.

Have you ever heard the commercials advertising a savings account or CD that end by saying something like "Our account pays 9 times the national savings average"....?

Since the national savings average commonly dips below 0%, when Americans spend more than they make, I don't see how this claim has much clout. Also, why in the world does it matter that the interest rate on their accounts pays x-amount times the national savings average? They are completely unrelated in almost every way. It's like saying "our cars get twice the gas mileage of the average snow blower."

It is absolutely, without question deceptive advertising. They know when the average person who hears that commercial thinks, "Hey, that account pays 9 times more than others." It is a swindle people.

Let me do the math for them

-0.5% x (any amount deposited)= 0% (0% APR) ----I will also be accepting deposits effective tomorrow.

Ponzi

What an apt comparison! I laughed as I read this realizing how true it really is.

"Bernard Madoff, who stands accused of bilking sophisticated investors out of $50 billion, is reported to have told two of his executives that his business was 'a giant Ponzi scheme.' Politicians go on and on about Wall Street 'greed' and 'irresponsibility.' But Madoff's scam was small compared to Ponzi schemes the government itself runs: Social Security and Medicare. In reality, our money, rather than being invested and kept in an actual 'trust fund,' is immediately given to current retirees in Social Security benefits or to their healthcare providers in Medicare benefits. The government's promise to pay for your retirement pension and medical care is just a promise. And a lie." --John Stossel

MIA

As of late our President-Elect Obama has, in my opinion been missing in action.

Hamas has been launching rockets from civilian-dense neighborhoods on Israel inciting a ground offensive of the Gaza strip to route out the terrorists. Hundreds of people have been killed and no end in sight. Demonstrations against Israel have popped up around the country (especially in San Fran Freako) protesting Israel's defense of itself. If Israel was dropping bombs on Palestine and the Palestinians defended themselves, the media and pot-head freakiziods would be calling for the US to condemn Israel's actions and send in billions to help the poor Arabs. Since Israel is our strongest, if not only real ally in the middle east, you would think that the President Elect would at least express a solid opinion on the matter.

Governor Blagojevic allegedly was selling Obama's vacated Senate seat. Obama gave a couple sound bites about how he was disappointed and that it was a sad day for Illinois but where was the outrage? It was HIS senate seat! Of course he would have an interest in who would take his job. You would. However, he stayed quiet and in the background. Disgraced Governor still appoints Roland Burris as senator. He shows up in Washington and is denied entrance into the Senate. "My people tried to reach out to them(Obama); I don't think we heard anything,'' Burris said. Obama:no comment. Too controversial because Mr. Burris is black. Too much talk about race and it's role in the appointment. "Better stay clear of this one as long as possible, sir."

In the midst of all the cabinet appointments, I have heard little to no real comments about the economy. It has been a topic apparently forgotten about. Recently, there have been some talks about "tax-breaks" for businesses and tax credits to all Americans. (Topic for another day) In reality this is nothing more than another form of corporate and individual welfare. Obama's aids are out talking but where is the President Elect?

Obama will soon appoint Clintonite Leon Penetta to the head of the CIA that has no real Intelligence-gathering experience to be the nations top "spy" to protect America against terrorist threats. Somehow this does not comfort me. He does so without consultation with Diane Feinstein, Senate Intelligence Committee Chairwoman. Now he has an old mean-liberal Californian woman on his bad side. Afterwards he apologized for not consulting with her first. Sorry. I'll be at the gym if you need me.

The common excuse for his inaction is that there is only one president at a time and he doesn't believe he should intervene with his opinions. Listen, we all know that Bush is already writing a book and it too busy packing boxes to move back to Crawford, so why not? He had no problem expressing his opinions during the election on current events. Why is he now so careful about what he says? I hope that Obama changes what seems to be a track record of inability to take a strong stance on issues. If there is one thing I did like about Bush, it was his grit when it came to standing up for what he thought was right. Of course on some pretty cut and dry, up or down votes in the Illinios Senate, Obama voted a unopinionated "present" 129 times so I guess we shouldn't be surprised by his inability to make a stand for something.

No-Drama Obama. I'd just hate to have to be the guy's White House Chef. "I'll have Steak, no chicken, no I was born in Hawaii, I feel like Spam tonight-no--ah fix me whatever you think is best."

We were the BEST..Unless

In the land of the free and the home of the competitive, one would think that as popular as college football is, there would be a definitive way to determine a champion. There are three teams full of eager college students that will have to live the rest of their lives telling their kids they were the national champions when in reality they will never know. The Undefeated Utah, Victorious one-loss Texas or the winner of the Oklahoma/Florida game will be the benefactor of a righteously flawed system that is more concerned with who has the money and who gets to keep the money that actually crowning a collegiate champion. Even hush money is paid to those schools who, if they threw a big enough fit about the flaws in the BCS system might spoil the party. Notre Dame gets over a million bucks a year whether they win a BCS bowl bid or not. Someone is greasing the skids for the greatest scam since the quiet size reduction of ice cream containers. You won't catch me wearing a BCS T-shirt anytime soon. I say Boo.

1,2,3 Kick 'em in the Knee

I have always routed for BYU. I liked a lot of their old time players-mostly QB's-McMann, Young, Detmer, Bosco etc. I also always liked the calmness and professional demeanor of LaVell Edwards. I also grew up not liking the Utah Utes. I didn't care for McBride or Majerus or many of their players. Any coach that can scream the F-word at his team knowing that cameras are on him is no role model for kids in my opinion. Since my childhood, I have watched the BYU/Utah games and have formed some of my own opinions.

I hate it when people call it the "Holy War." It starts as a rivalry, soon escalating to bitterness and ending in a crescendo of absolute hatred. Holy War? Somehow implying that the Utes are the non-believing mongrels fighting the Holy Crusaders of BYU? I have been to several Utah/BYU games and am always amazed at the ignorance and absolute lack of civility between blue and red wearing fans. It actually gets annoying to go to the game. Elsewhere in the country, there are many rivalries bigger and older than the Cougar/Utes. I have noticed though that these are healthy rivalries. There is a mutual respect among fans (granted some exceptions) but it doesn't have the same religious/cultural stigma that the Utah based rivalry does. Recognizing the fact that not all Mormons are BYU fans and not all non-Mormons are Utah fans, I am merely calling it how I see it-As if somehow the winner rules the state as a Mormon/non-Mormon territory for the next year? Perhaps it is only an outlet for frustration that builds between Mormons/non-Mormons all year and the game just gives them a socially acceptable outlet to scream and shake fists at each other. So I'm not sure that I have another "Holy War" in me for 2009. If it's a football game, and a competitive one, I'm a fan.

So here I sit typing, watching the Utah Utes represent the MWC and defeat the SEC's crown jewel Alabama Crimson Tide. I'm glad that a team from Utah did so well. I think Kyle Whittingham is a classy coach and that reflects on his players as well.

So do me a favor, if you are a fan of either of these Utah teams, and you hear someone call it the "Holy War" act civil and kick 'em in the knee.

Gay Crocodiles

When Carin and I were first married, we had the bunny-ear TV set that got very limited selection in our town house. We were forced to watch a lot of public television and nature programs as these were usually the best channels for reception. We watched a nature special once about this mammoth crocodile that was killing villagers and they'd sent hunters in to find, apprehend and kill the ferocious beast. The program was well-put together and kept us in suspense for the whole two hour special. The program ended and they didn't catch the blasted crocodile! It just ended! So now, when this happens with other shows we call them crocodile shows. We watched one last night.

National Geographic has been hyping the crud out of their new "Identical Twins- In the Womb" special for like 2 months. Since we have identical twins, we recorded it and were excited to watch it because the commercials said that they had made some breakthrough discoveries and new science behind identical twins. We watched the entire hour long special hoping that there would be something ground-breaking or important said. In a nutshell, this is what national geographic proved in their hour long special.

1. When the fertilized egg is eight days old, certain cells start with a small electrical shock and then other cells also start pulsating. These cells become a beating human heart. In their words, "the organizer" tells what cells to do what. Never eluding that this is a miracle by any definition of the word with no obvious scientific explanation. The narrator constantly refers to the fetus as an organism or growing tissue.

2. They posed the age old question on whether or not people are born gay. Asking the question they admit has no scientific answer, they then base all research done with assuming people are born gay. They proceeded in using identical twins, one gay one straight to prove that it is nature that chooses the sexual preference by the amount of testosterone absorbed while in the womb. They never once even bring up the topic that it may be a case of choice. So a fetus barely a month old already has a sexual preference in the eyes of the producer of this show.

Carin and I turned to one another at the same time and realized that in the scientifically-liberal minded eyes of NATGEO, a baby was assigned it's holy gayness as a sexual preference long before it was even recognized as a human being. In what world do people live that can study such a science and see cells immediately separating, multiplying, taking on specific tasks and building the most advanced form of life on this earth and not recognize this as living human being? It is completely ironic and near sickening to me that "advanced-science" will assign a sexual preference to a "tissue" and won't even admit that it is a living human being.

I came to the conclusion that the program's sole purpose was to try to prove that people are born gay. So the program drags on and on with the same repetitive script, same slow-motion video clips of the same people while the narrator rearranges the already old and widely accepted science of twins. Nothing new at all. The program ends with a 30 second recap of everything the program took 60 minutes to tell. False advertising I say! I want that hour of my life back. It was a total crocodile show. We will now refer to it as a gay crocodile show.

Have your Pizza Delivered.....

So in honor of Friday night, snowstorms and the upcoming winter solstice celebration, we decided to get Papa Murphy's pizza tonight for dinner. We love their Gourmet Chicken Garlic. Anyway, the one beef I have with PM is even if you call in and order your pizza, you still have to stand in line with all the other hungry yah-whos to pay for your pizza. Even at 4:30 tonight the line was out the door. So while standing in line, I get to listen to a mother who should receive he annoying mother of the year award. Let me paint the picture.

Mother, 2 year old, 6 year old-standing two patrons in front of me in line. 6 year old is very excited about all the neon lights, letters and fun things to see in PM. He says things like "Hey Mom! There's a "W" like in Wagon!" She proceeds to, in a very loud voice, repeat what the 6 year old just said. "Yes your right! You are a genius! You are the smartest boy in the whole wide world!! What other letters do you see?" (as she looks around the crowded room to see who else is watching her 6 year old recite the alphabet.) This continues, thanks to a SUPER-slow cashier for 20 minutes and a minimum of 30 more letters and super loud exchanges so that everyone in the place could see that her son knew his alphabet. I'm not faulting the kid bu the mother. Now I am not sure if I have ever done this with my daughter because I know all of us think that our kids are both the cutest and the smartest but it made me aware to never even come close to the public "dog and pony-show and tell" this lady subjected all of us to. I felt like telling her I had a 3 year old that can do the same thing but I figured that would burst her pizza crust bubble, so I stayed quiet.

I told Carin and my 3 year old daughter the story when I got home and my daughter said, "Daddy, were you standing in a line?" I said,"Yes sweetheart we were in a line." She asked, was the line straight like a capital "I"? I'd put my 3 year old up against that chick's first grader any day.

The pizza was magnificent though! I'm just glad I wasn't in a restaurant eating next to this lady.

Experience the Power of Change!

I don't know if you have heard MSNBC's new tag line for themselves but now that the election is over, they have apparently stopped trying to hide the fact that they are a cable news station that's blatantly infatuated with Obama and purely giddy about Bush leaving Washington.

A short trailer complete with flowing flags and flattering profiles of Joe Scarbourough, Chris (Obama sends a tingle up my leg) Matthews, Keith Olbermann, Rachel Maddow and David Gregory flashes across the screen with the announcer stating "Stay with MSNBC and experience the power of CHANGE!" I thought that at a minimum the news channels were supposed to at least say they were unbiased. They may be a little nervous about more than twice the cable news viewer getting their news from FOX because their commentators are much less abrasive and condescending. I also enjoy how much FOX news is vilified. Sure they have conservative commentators but they don't advertise the entire news network as a power of good for a certain political figure. Experience the Power of Change! Do you think they meant changing the channel or more along the lines of if I save my pocket change that I can someday afford to go to Disneyland?